RBC Bull Scenario Targets Gold at $5,321
- admin_ftp@b2544fd367
- August 11, 2026
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The Gold price could average close to $5,300 in 2027 under RBC’s bullish scenario, while its central case still points to prices holding above $4,200.
The Gold price was trading around $4,380 on Tuesday after another volatile 48 hours, having briefly pushed above $4,430 before giving back part of the move.
RBC Capital Markets’ latest commodity forecasts leave plenty of room for both bulls and bears, but the upper end remains striking.
Its high scenario averages $5,296 an ounce in 2027, including quarterly estimates of $5,249 in Q1, $5,297 in Q2, $5,321 in Q3 and $5,318 in Q4.
The central, or middle, scenario is far less dramatic.
RBC sees gold averaging $4,577 in 2026, including $4,558 in Q3 and $4,370 in Q4. For 2027, the middle case slips to an average of $4,225.
That is still close to current prices rather than a call for the market to unwind the whole of the past year’s rally.
Gold traded between roughly $4,315 and $4,433 over the latest 48-hour period.
The spread between RBC’s scenarios is unusually wide.
Its bearish case puts gold at $3,729 in Q3 and $3,757 in Q4, with an average of just $3,661 in 2027.
At the other extreme, the high case has gold back above $5,100 as early as Q3 this year and above $5,200 by Q4.
RBC says its gold price forecasts draw on two main approaches: a macroeconomic model and physical supply-and-demand forecasts.
The underlying balance is expected to loosen. RBC projects a 301-tonne surplus in 2026, increasing to 589 tonnes in 2027 as total demand falls from 5,104 tonnes to 4,728 tonnes.
Gold Outlook: Wide Range, but Bull Case Is Still Alive
That softer physical balance helps explain why RBC’s middle scenario does not chase gold back towards its early-2026 highs.
But the high scenario shows how quickly the picture could change if macro conditions once again turn strongly supportive.
Gold remains lower over three months despite its latest rebound, but has climbed back above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
From current levels around $4,380, RBC’s 2027 high-case average implies upside of roughly 20%.
Its central case is much more restrained, effectively arguing that gold can remain expensive by historical standards without returning immediately to the extremes seen earlier this year.