Copper Demand Is Forecast to Rise 50% by 2040. Mined Supply Is Expected to Peak Around 2030

Global copper demand is projected to rise about 50%, from roughly 28 million metric tons in 2025 to 42 million metric tons by 2040, according to S&P Global’s January 2026 outlook, which warns that the market could face a shortfall of up to 10 million metric tons by 2040 without major new mining and processing investment. The Business Research Company puts the value of the global copper market at about $124.1 billion in 2026, rising to approximately $184.6 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of roughly 10.4%. Active Companies from around the markets with current developments this week include: Yukon Metals Corp. (CSE: YMC) (FSE: E770) (OTCQB: YMMCF), Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX), Ivanhoe Electric Inc. (NYSE American: IE), GoldMining Inc. (NYSE American: GLDG), Seabridge Gold Inc. (NYSE: SA).

The supply side is where the pressure builds. S&P Global expects primary mined copper supply to peak around 2030 and then decline, estimates that the average mine takes about 17 years to move from discovery to production, and calculates that recycling could meet at most a quarter to a third of demand by 2040. With lead times that long, much of the copper the world will need in the late 2030s has to come from deposits that are being found, or have yet to be found, today.

Demand is coming from several directions at once. S&P Global estimates that data centers could account for up to 14% of total U.S. electricity demand by 2030, up from about 5% today, and that electric vehicles use nearly three times as much copper as conventional cars. Traditional uses such as construction, machinery and power generation are still expected to grow about 2% a year.

The near-term picture is more balanced. In April, the International Copper Study Group forecast a refined copper surplus of 96,000 metric tons for 2026 and 377,000 metric tons for 2027, citing slower demand growth and higher secondary production, while cutting its 2026 mine output growth forecast to 1.6%. Prices have nonetheless stayed strong: copper set records on the London Metal Exchange in September, and the largest U.S.-listed producer expects to have realized an average of more than $6.50 per pound in the third quarter.

That gap between today’s balance and the next decade’s needs is why early-stage exploration results from less-explored copper districts, including Canada’s Yukon, matter well before any of them could reach production.

Yukon Metals Confirms New Copper-Gold-Molybdenum Porphyry-Style System at Viper Prospect, AZ Project

Yukon Metals Corp. (CSE: YMC) (FSE: E770) (OTCQB: YMMCF) reported on October 14 that its first drill program at the Viper Porphyry Prospect, on its 100%-owned AZ Project 36 kilometres south of Beaver Creek, Yukon, confirmed a new porphyry-style hydrothermal system with copper, gold and molybdenum mineralization. Highlights include:

  • Copper-gold-molybdenum mineralization intersected in all three 2026 holes, totaling 1,948 metres, with copper values generally increasing with depth.
  • Locally elevated mineralization, including 1.85% copper and 1.97 g/t gold over 0.6 metres in hole AZ26-008 and 685 ppm molybdenum over 0.80 metres in hole AZ26-007.
  • The prospective corridor extended east-southeast beyond current drilling, where anomalous soil geochemistry coincides with the structural trend and a pronounced magnetic break.

 

The Company interprets the alteration pattern, quartz-sericite-pyrite alteration at surface and in drilling with magnetite-actinolite-biotite ± K-feldspar alteration at depth, as evidence of a porphyry system, and believes drilling to date likely tested its upper levels or margins rather than its centre. Its next objective is to vector toward Viper’s potentially higher-grade core.

“Viper has developed into a strong copper-gold-molybdenum porphyry target at our flagship AZ property,” said Jim Coates, CEO of Yukon Metals. “All three holes drilled this year encountered hundreds of metres of porphyry-style alteration with locally developed copper-gold-molybdenum mineralization.”