UBS Targets Gold At $5,400 As Bullion Recovers

Gold has recovered towards $4,200, but UBS’s December forecast of $4,600 still requires a gain of almost 10% from current levels.

Gold’s sharp September retreat has left a much steeper climb to UBS’s $4,600 year-end forecast, even as bullion recovers some of Monday’s losses.

The Gold price (XAU/USD) edged up 0.20% to around $4,195 an ounce on Wednesday morning, following Tuesday’s 1.49% rebound.

Monday’s 3.20% decline had taken the closing price to roughly $4,125, and bullion remained nearly 6% lower for September through Tuesday.

Rising yields and a stronger Dollar drove the selloff, increasing the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no interest.

Wednesday brought some relief as Treasury yields eased and investors scaled back expectations for an October Federal Reserve hike.

UBS’s forecasts, dated 24 September, put gold at $4,600 in December 2026, $5,000 in March 2027, $5,200 in June and $5,400 in September.

That implies gains of approximately 9.7% by year-end and 28.7% by September 2027 from today’s price.

Those projections predate Monday’s slide, rather than representing a fresh response to it.

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UBS’s earlier argument gives more weight to reserve diversification and investment demand than to the next interest-rate decision alone.

In its earlier September assessment, the bank said: “We view gold as a strategic portfolio hedge and diversifier, rather than as a tactical expression of the next Fed decision.”

UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo also wrote on 17 September: “We believe the long-term investment case for gold remains positive,” pointing to central-bank purchases as structural support.

The immediate test is whether softer rate expectations persist through the next US inflation and employment releases.

Stronger figures could lift yields again and test whether central-bank and investment demand can offset renewed pressure on bullion.